Executive Summary of Past Forums
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Seventeenth Forum - November 2022
The Lasting Impact of COVID in the GTA
Throughout the pandemic, SRRA has been publishing the Occupancy Index measuring the return to the office. It is based on data, research and interviews conducted with leaders in industry. Many of our contributors agree that there is no hard consensus on what the future holds.
This genie is out of the bottle. COVID has laid bear the time lost and the financial cost of commuting, the impact on productivity and corporate culture is still widely disputed and getting employees who are benefitting from remote work back into a in-office environment needs to address all of these issues. That will not happen quickly.
Companies will need their human resources departments to be innovative and find ways to accommodate employees whose work can be done remotely. Other issues, such as retaining and attracting talent are being complicated by substantial long-term remote work.
The commercial office industry will adapt but not be substantially altered in most cases by remote work. Vacancy cycles exacerbated by remote-work have still not reached panic levels with most professionals in the business. Property values have not moved beyond normal cyclical levels and investors have not substantially altered valuations because of remote work.
Other economic forces are having a bigger impact of commercial real estate values than remote work. Fighting Inflation and the hybrid model both need new strategies to succeed. Old models aren’t working.
Sixteenth Forum - May 2022
Transit and the Optimistic Return to In-Office Work
In Memoriam
Kathleen Llewellyn Thomas Kenneally P. Eng, 1958–2022.
Kathleen was a treasured friend and colleague whose support and contribution from the outset of SRRA was greatly appreciated. Kathleen’s innovative approach to challenges and never-ending support for improvement were the hallmarks of her career. She will be greatly missed.
After an unexpected continuation of remote work (two plus years) by those who can is stretching the expectation of those who depend on significant weekly in-office work, the reality of some remote work lasting is being felt.
The ecosystem supporting urban office clusters has been devasted by the lack of customers. Government supports can not and will not survive a long term run of remote work.
Transit operators can not afford to be optimistic about a sudden return to the Office. High levels of ridership at “crush hour” may be a long way from resuming.
The hybrid work week, where attendance in the office is some portion of the week, is an experiment still under examination where too little is known about the competitiveness and productivity impacts of remote work.
Employers are challenged to build corporate culture and measure competitiveness while employees are being more selective about who they will work for. The added time at home and financial savings of reduced commuting is being measured against career advancement and the socialization of direct face to face in-office benefits.
Transit operators will have to have their ear very close to the mobility impacts of remote work…. Its too early to draw conclusions yet.
Fifteenth Forum - November 2021
The Viability of Transit Post-COVID
For nearly 18 months, transit operators worldwide, have been struggling to keep the lights on. They were dealt a rough blow when medical knowledge at the outset of COVID suggested rapid transmission from up close and personal exchanges. Recent evidence is suggesting that the length of exposure in an enclosed area is more than 10 minutes.
Unfortunately, that damage is done. The few commuters who are returning to the office are not using transit. The feeling is that once mask wearing, and vaccines are available that operators will be able to re-establish their revenues.
On the broader subject of lessons learned or experienced suggests that short term emphasis on identifying optimal collaboration strategies among transit operators will help. A midterm solution is focused on a regional approach to identifying and developing new customers with better customer focused pricing and transfer abilities.
In the long term, new transit will have to have an element of pandemic protection to prevent the kind of extreme revenue loss. There will have to be an emphasis on less congested vehicles while meeting the operation concerns of peek travel.
Transit operators are going to have to adapt to new trends which are not steeped in old patterns and be helped by employers who are creating the new rules around attendance in the office based on new motives such as DEI and ESG concerns.
Fourteenth Forum - June 2021
The Region’s Post-Pandemic Economic Competitiveness Risks and Rewards
Prior to the lockdown in March 2020, the GTHA had been growing faster and for a longer period than any region in North America. The Region attracted 1M people every eight years, stimulating significant amounts of new construction to support jobs and housing.
Will that growth resume? A common perspective in our pre-forum interviews was that the Region has the potential to leverage its diverse assets and attractiveness to become even more competitive in a post-pandemic economy.
As one contributor suggested we need government to change the narrative and not scare Canadians. Similarity, there is an absence of a leading voice driving the conversation to facilitate a return to the office. The general feeling was there was its just too early to start forcing any change, but in the end the region will recover.
The discussion centred on three issues, remote work and transit, future of office space and impacts of pandemic proofing common places where people congregate. Rapid testing and the development of vaccines will play a small part in driving people back to work.
As noted during the forum, in a great history lesson given by Stephen Johnson, only two pandemics historically have led to long term ongoing structural changes to how economies operate, and both saw catastrophic levels of loss of life and depopulation. Luckily, COVID-19 is not even remotely comparable in terms of its impact making its probable long-term impact on how the economy works very minimal.
With the unfortunate but unsubstantiated narrative that transit is a factor in the spread of COVID-19, there has been a change in the perceptions and ‘comfort levels’ regarding public transit. Will the customer tolerate crush hour transit post-pandemic? With record low ridership and unprecedented high service costs additionally impacted by new health regulations and guidelines, transit agencies need to focus on operating to serve the needs of the customer to drive the return to transit.
Thirteenth Forum - March 2021
The Future of Office Space
Pandemic experts created restrictions to stop the spread of the COVID 19. The response by office employers was instant and uniform, employees who were not essential were sent home and assisted in making the changes required to facilitate work from home. When restrictions were relaxed in early July and Sept of 2020, employers and landlords worked within guidelines to provide access for 20% of employees to return to the office, however, it was a voluntary option by employees and as the Occupancy Index shows most didn’t take up the opportunity.
COVID 19 has sparked some real changes in how business is done. Some of this is generational, but the asymmetry of pandemic knowledge, the inconsistent data and an absence of pandemic response knowledge created fear. Employees adapted willingly to the safety of work from home (WFH) initially. But WFH and COVID fatigue is setting in. As vaccines become more acceptable, the risk of mortality is reduced, the stress on medical infrastructure allows for more balanced care for all medical conditions will employees accept. People will accept risk but not blind risk.
Employers have had to constantly revise their estimates of the percentage of employees returning to the office. Despite significant efforts by landlords to prepare for a large-scale voluntary return to the office building few have. Planning for a hybrid return is raising organizational challenges which may not result in as much WFH as has been suggested. The expense of reorganizing personal space in offices may entirely depend on the degree distancing and proximity lingers on beyond vaccines.
Pandemics, wars, recessions, and technology have all challenged the use of office space. Since the office building began to evolve as an important part of the culture of major cities, tenants have always tried to maximize space utility. COVID may change all that.
Twelfth Forum - October 2020
The New Normal – What is it?
The discussion suggests that the extent to which people will continue to work from home is still unknown. “Heads down work” – which is basically transactional – can be done anywhere, but “heads up” work, which involves engagement with others, will always need to be done in person.
There was a robust exchange on the question of access to talent. Firms like Shopify, which have made clear their commitment to remote working, help underscore the ability of companies to source talent located anywhere on the globe. This is a double-edged sword, some noted, as companies in Toronto cannot guarantee they will be able to hold on to talent they already have.
Will COVID 19 trigger a migration to the suburbs to accommodate a population of employees unwilling to commute. Will talent leave the City for green pastures then when things settle down they wont be able to afford to return.
Another participant brought up the issue of people shifting to working in the office two to three days a week. Another unknown, but one with important ramifications for the future viability of the economic ecosystem of retailers, restaurants etc. Could this result in a drop in the daytime population of downtown?
There was an acknowledgement that keeping an open mind in the face of multiple sources of anecdotal comments on issues is challenging. This underscores the value of an evidence-based approach of the SRRA Occupancy Index.
On the future of downtowns, one participant commented that colleagues working on transportation modelling internationally are confident that downtowns generally will continue to thrive, a point made in a recent article in the Globe and Mail by Joe Berridge who was also in attendance.
Eleventh Forum - Spring 2020
Bold Measures in the time of COVID 19
Public debt has exploded, and public finances will be impacted for years to come. Physical distancing is here for some time. As we envision a new “normal” what can we do to get the economy back on its feet literally?
Spreading out the Workday.
The rush hour puts maximum pressure on roads and transit. If employers in the three major concentrations of employment (Downtown, Markham/Richmond Hill and the 401 corridors in Mississauga) could stagger the workday then returning to work would be safer.
When the need for physical distancing limits the capacity of transit vehicles the easiest way to safely provide room for everyone is for employers to coordinate with landlords and transit officials to stagger working hours throughout the region.
Better Transit Delivery Across the GTA.
Before COVID, transit in the region, especially when it crossed transit system boundaries, was both expensive and less than optimally integrated. The systems must be better integrated in terms of service and fares to attract former and new transit users and generate new revenue.
The only entity that can drive the changes needed is the Provincial Government. Without jumping to a single system or onerous governance change steps must be taken to oversee service and fares for all 7 major transit agencies and a regional approach to raising funds for operating subsidies should be developed and adopted.
Preparing for the Return of Growth.
Establish a delivery commission solely dedicated to coordinate and maximize regional public investment in transit and complementary housing and job development. Developers are forging ahead to meet the expected demand of the post-COVID era. Will the necessary transit procurement be able to deliver new capacity aligned with development in a timely manner?
Should we take advantage of the COVID ‘time out’ to prepare for the resumption of growth? There needs to be a shift in culture that focuses on infrastructure investments that deliver results. “However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results” - Winston Churchill
Tenth Forum - Winter 2020
Infrastructure Solutions for a Regional Economy
Having the Right People with a Productive Mandate.
The Region has 12 transit agencies, multiple layers of government and silos of activity often overlapping and/or competing for subsidy funding. Each separate agency is mandated to engineer, operate, plan, procure and manage construction, collect fares, determine pricing, sell advertising, manage property and more while competing with each other for public subsidy. Is this the best way to deliver services to the same client, the people of the region? This forum explored innovative ways of reorganizing how service and delivery can be improved.
The Case for Collaboration - Governance Change
There is no appetite for governance change led by government today. The Forum convened a discussion about specific ways to enhance each operator’s revenue through a higher degree of collaboration, As each agency secures its operating subsidy from local governments customers are often left scratching their heads, ‘why pay 2 fares for a short trip’, Why can’t’ I use the GO system when I have already paid a TTC fare to travel downtown’…? etc. etc. The audience concluded that collaboration has to be accompanied by a revised financial model.
Test Case – Quick Relief
The Forum was entertained by a short video showing how Metrolinx and the TTC could create a near term solution to congestion at Bloor/Yonge and Bloor/St. George stations by offering up a collaborative use of the rail corridors for customers of the TTC. There was universal acceptance of the idea at the Forum.
New Approach Station Development, Advertising and Other non-fare revenue.
Creating revenue from Partnerships in Real Estate (See the 9th Forum for more) and from media, internet and advertising is a very distinct skill and has little to no impact on the daily operations of a transit agency. Why does each agency operate its own non-fare departments? Discussed at this Forum were ways to pool resources and generate more revenue.
Ninth Forum - Spring 2019
Best Practices from Transportation for London
Do Not Sell Property - Retain For Long Term Revenue
Graeme Craig, Commercial Development Director at Transportation for London with responsibility for advertising, commercial partnerships, licensing & merchandising, property development, property management, asset management, estate management, telecommunications, and international operations & consultancy introduced this session.
Transportation for London (TfL) changed its approach to property owned by TfL in 2015. TfL committed to stop the sale of surplus land or land that was unused but not core to the operation of transit. It established a unit of TfL led by senior managers but staffed by professionals from the commercial real estate industry.
The Objective was to create rental properties which could provide sustaining annual revenue to TfL. and provide affordable homes.
Best Practices in Transportation Innovation
Helen Murphy, Director, Commercial Consulting, and International Operations, led this session employing her London experience and knowledge of integrated transport, complex capital investment programs and modern digital technologies in signaling, ticketing and data.
Helen outlined just how similar the Greater Toronto Area is to London and how this region could benefit from applying some of the success stories in governance, project delivery, pricing and operations. Her superb presentation on how innovation in London can be adapted in the GTA provided valuable insight to the assembly.
Eighth Forum - Spring 2018
Public Confidence in Transit
Putting the Consumer First
The travelers on roads move seamlessly from one part of the region to another. They don't notice borders or who owns and maintains the roads. Regional Transit users, however, have to navigate many transit operators, pay double fares for short trips and transfer between operators to cross municipal borders. Governments should rethink the delivery of transit service without the constraints of operator agency transfers, punitive fares. Its time to re-organize service planning, fares and optimize the consumer experience to drive more public confidence in transit delivery.
Affordable Places to Work and Live Near Transit
Affordability is not just the price of a home or office space but the complete cost of the location of a family or business. Transit's value to residents and business is the reduction of cost. To retain affordable places around transit new policy focused on mitigation of land value accretion, multi-functionality and accessible amenities to everyday life. Provide developers with a better policy environment to intensify around transit and transit locations can be considerably more affordable.
Prioritizing High Value Transit with Non-Government Funding
Transit projects with limited ridership/revenue and high capital cost are not attractive to private sector entities nor should they be to taxpayers. Testing the viability of transit projects with the proven sustainable ridership based on evidence not aspiration should be the first step in prioritizing projects, and certainly the only way to attract other sources of funding capital.
Seventh Forum - Winter 2018
Transit Funding Innovation
The Creative Art of Funding Transit
This session was introduced by Bridget Rosewell O.B.E., Commissioner of the UK’s independent National Infrastructure Commission. Bridget was appointed an Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in 2013 in honour of her extensive services to the economy.
Governments in Canada have committed $50 Billion over the next 25 years to fund the capital expansion of transit capacity. Where will the money come from, how can public value be protected and how can the private sector be induced to fund transit were topics of extensive discussion? Bridget let this robust conversation with an introduction to what is possible.
Reducing the Subsidy of Transit.
This session was introduced by Julian Ware, Head of Major Project Funding in the Corporate Finance team who also leads TfL’s work on land value capture.
The direct operating subsidy of public transit in the Toronto Region exceeds $1.2 Billion per annum. Indirect subsidies increase this amount by a further 50% and significant opportunity costs are created by current approaches. By generating more revenue out of the transit in place now, the reduction of the subsidy could be used to build more capacity. Is this realistic? Ideas from the Forum suggest that it is.
Multiple Operators Create a Conflict of Interest
Martin Buck is the Commercial Director and Transition and Strategy Director at Crossrail Inc. His responsibility for procuring the supply chain and third-party agreements required to support the Crossrail project provided a stimulating introduction to this conversation.
The Region's multiple agency model limits operators from facilitating much needed enhancements to regional transit service. A reorganization of ‘who does what’ and a new focus on funding transit as a regional model will allow for a deeper focus on transit use throughout the Region.
Sixth Forum - Spring 2017
Optimizing Public Value in Infrastructure
Transit “Through the Eyes of the Consumer”
There are many potential adjustments in service levels and fare optimization hiding in plain sight that are not possible while agencies are constrained by the mandates of individual operators. Making inter-regional travel more convenient, cost effective and faster will attract many who now do not use transit, but to do this planners need to know more about where people are travelling and recognize opportunities which arise from seeing service through the eyes of consumers.
Investing in New Transit Projects with Measurable Public Benefit.
New transit must be preceded by a transparent business case that establishes the value of the proposal. Evaluating transit requires a clear understanding of the life cycle cost of the project, net new ridership revenue within the network served by the new project and the financial benefits of agglomeration, and the contribution to social and cultural value (as well as contributions to the network).
Land Value Capture or Land Value Creation
Land and development values are increased by proximity to transit. How that value is maximized by transit operators and developers requires a new approach to transit-oriented development. Without appropriate development, transit suffers sub optimal ridership. Creating conditions where development occurs is of mutual benefit to both transit operators and investors.
Reducing the risk that development does not occur has many benefits, not the least of which is reducing the demand for transit operating subsidy by maximizing net new revenue from ridership.
Big Data and Analytics to anticipate new ridership and plan new capacity.
Transit planning needs considerably more information about who uses and who could use transit. Are we investing enough in the data and analytics to enable planners to prioritize new transit investment. Governments are investing billions of dollars in transit, are they spending enough on market knowledge?
Business invest significant amounts on new product research. Why then do transit planners spend relatively nothing on data and analytics? The "build it and they will come" moto of traditional transit planners simply isn't enough anymore.
Fifth Forum - Spring 2016
Transit Planning is More than Lines on a Map
For decades the idea that if you built major transit lines business and homes would magically appear has been replaced with sophisticated tools which provide decision makers with the ability to select projects which move more people more effectively.
Throughout the world transit planning expertise has been providing politicians with projects which work obviating the need for politicians to make up their own politically motivated transit plans over the barbeque with a map and a pencil. Transit investment has benefited greatly from non-government expertise.
Cities such as London, Paris, New York, Hong Kong, Tokyo, and many more are realizing the value of stakeholder investment in transit in partnership with the public sector because it allows for managing risk and driving better outcomes. “Lines on a Map” are being exchanged for due diligence. Participants in the Forum noted that it can be challenging to balance and sustain competing visions over the course of short-term election cycles.
Competitive Market Forces Retard Transit-Oriented Development
Simply mandating a land use designation is no guarantee builders will build. Zoning alone does not attract new development. Other factors such as land economics are often out of syn once a transit plan has been announced. Toronto’s long-standing zoning provision of ‘commercial-residential’ could be recalibrated to compensate for the different values assigned to commercial and residential.
Land value accretion, land economics and market forces determine the viability of development. Planning constraints which need to be adjusted for market forces often either drive development away or increase costs. The Forum concluded that the victim of this reality was affordability. When the primary public objective is affordability new policy innovation must change the status quo while allowing market forces to drive investment.
Fourth Forum - Spring 2015
Land & Rail, Getting it Right
Generously hosted by Stikeman Elliot
Employing the panel format the speakers were asked to give their perspective on each question. It is SRRA’s practice to never ascribe comments to any one participant. For more details on this Forum please contact SRRA.
Panel 1: Will Residential and Commercial Growth of the GTHA align with the Provincial and Municipal Commitments to invest in new Transit?
Presenters included
Larry Clay, Assistant Deputy Minister, Ontario Growth Secretariat
Peter Moore, Project Manager, Strategic Initiatives, Policy & Analysis, City of Toronto
Eileen Waechter, Director, Airport Planning, Toronto Pearson International Airport
Panel 2: The Achilles Heel of ridership is the lack of TOD, what else drives low usage in transit?
Presenters included
Angela Dietrich, Manager, City Wide Policy Planning, City of Mississauga
Stephen Diamond, President & CEO, Diamond Corp
Steve Upton, VP, Development Planning, Tridel.
Third Forum - Spring 2014
International Best Practices in Project Analysis
Generously hosted by Metrolinx
Introductory Remarks
The Hon. Glen Murray, MPP and Minister of Infrastructure and Transportation, formerly the CEO of the Canadian Urban Institute.
Evaluation of New Transit Infrastructure – Adopting International Standards, Comparing Apples to Apples.
Moderated by Bob Onyschuk, founder Onyschuk Strategic Advisory Services,
The following questions were posed to the audience followed by robust conversation.
Location incentives for employers – do they work?
Are dispersed suburban environments worth of transit investment, is it possible?
Is multi-functionality development critical to transit?
What does affordable places to incubate the emerging economy look like?
Why do Employment Hubs matter?
Can we connect where people work to where they live?
How do we connect dispersed employment clusters?
Can the employment sectors be tapped for transit capital and operating monies?
Although the opinions of individuals are not reported in Forum Summaries much of the conversation in this Forum led to the creation of the study by SRRA entitled “The Impact of Transit on Regional Growth” - 2016
Second Forum - Winter 2013
GTA Challenges - Prioritizing the Next Project
Generously hosted by Stikeman Elliot
Session One: Making Decisions on Evidence
SRRA presented a short video powered from its unique data base which showed the value of reconsidering transit plans based on facts. In its initial year of research, SRRA concluded that the region’s decision-making process was not led by how many riders would use the facility or by where development was, these were assumptions which de facto would result from the investment.
The highly politically motivated final decisions to proceed with investment are not unique to the region but the dominant role was changing elsewhere. Political actors assumed long range value but made decisions on current political factors. Should politicians rely solely of operators, who are often conflicted by operator prejudice, as the primary or indeed sole source of expertise? These questions and more begged the question, has anyone got this right?
Session Two: The Crossrail Study Case – New Influences Driving Transit Plans.
How the $25B Crossrail project redefined transit planning in the UK
led by; Jim Berry, Hatch Mott Macdonald (formerly of Canary Wharf Group)
Lessons learned from Crossrail – the transit agency perspective
led by; Michael Sutherland, Metrolinx
How the private sector can contribute to better transit in the GTHA
led by; Bob Onyschuk – Onyschuk Strategic Advisory Services
Inaugural Forum - Winter 2012
Why a New Research Organization Now?
Generously hosted by Brookfield Asset Management
Why do we need a group like SRR (became SRRA in 2013)?
Attended by a wide representation of business leaders and government including:
Canadian Urban Institute, Metrolinx, Sun Life Assurance Co. of Canada, Tridel Corporation, City of Toronto Economic Development, Brookfield, Financial District BIA, GWL, RealPac, Scotiabank, Oxford Properties, Cadillac Fairview.
The Strategic Regional Research initiative and business plan was based on:
Research based on evidence originating from independent third parties;
Analysis on evidence not analysis to justify outcomes;
Need to inform decision makers of worldwide best practices implemented here.
The three summaries prepared for the meeting on topics for the initial research paper were discussed. This resulted in a free-flowing exchange of ideas. Summarizing in no particular order the following points:
Several participants noted that the driving force for suburban office development is the wishes of the tenant, whose needs determine the location of new space.
There needs to be a larger regional approach to solutions.
Stakeholders often understand issues which are not widely shared and this is an opportunity to broaden that base of understanding.
Are policy papers, communication briefs, or case studies intended to be original or secondary research?
Devote available resources to quality regional research rather than superficial commentary inspired locally.